Key Takeaways
- Business optimism has surged since Donald Trump’s election in November, and business leaders have expressed a noteworthy turnaround in sentiment.
- The NFIB small business sentiment survey reached its highest levels since 2018, supporting other data showing business owners feel good about the outlook.
- While consumer surveys have also shown some improvements in sentiment since the election, they haven’t displayed the same optimism.
While consumers are expressing a range of feelings about the economic outlook, one category of people is feeling renewed optimism over the direction of the economy: business leaders.
In several surveys since the November election of Donald Trump, business owners and executives have shown a noteworthy turnaround in sentiment. Perhaps nowhere has this reversal shown itself more clearly than with the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index, which surged to its highest level since October 2018 in December.
That followed the November survey results—the first since the election—where the number of small business owners who were optimistic about the economy rose by 41 points.
“Optimism on Main Street continues to grow with the improved economic outlook following the election,” wrote NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg in the report. “Expectations for economic growth, lower inflation, and positive business conditions have increased in anticipation of pro-business policies and legislation in the new year.”
And much of that optimism is directly tied to Trump’s campaign promises, analysts said.
“Small business owners anticipate lower regulatory costs and more transparent policy direction, particularly regarding energy policy and tax treatment,” wrote Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer at Westwood.
Other Surveys Showing Jump in Business Owner Sentiment
It’s not the only survey to show growing optimism among businesses.
In JPMorgan Chase’s annual survey of business leaders, 65% expressed optimism in the national economy, more than double last year’s responses. Only 14% of respondents see a recession coming in 2025, a big drop from the 40% who anticipated an economic downturn in the prior year.
Additionally, a U.S. Chamber of Commerce survey showed that 72% of small business owners said they expect to grow revenue in 2025.
“Recession concerns have dropped as businesses, consumers and markets have handled a period of elevated inflation and interest rates better than expected. Confidence in the soft-landing scenario has increased, and business leaders are facing forward with a positive mindset,” said Ginger Chambless, JPMorganChase Commercial Banking head of research in a prepared statement.
Businesses Need Strength in Consumer Confidence
The business leaders stand in contrast to consumers, who have shown more measured opinions about the economic outlook.
For example, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed consumer expectations in January were almost seven points lower than at the same point last year. And the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index was lower in December after moving higher following the November election.
While small business optimism offers encouraging signals, Helfert wrote that consumers will also need to remain positive about the economy for businesses to see growth this year.
“Looking ahead, the sustainability of this optimistic trend may depend on whether consumer sentiment, particularly among lower-wage cohorts, follows suit,” Helfert said.
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